Thoughts on the Weekend in Sports

Some general thoughts on Super Bowl 42, the Santana trade, the Gasol trade

Point differential and why this is the biggest upset in NFL History:

Everyone is (correctly) highlighting the fact that it seems incredible that the 16-0 Patriots could lose to a 10-6 Giants team that most people didn't expect to get past the first round of the playoffs. But I like to look at point differential as a true measure of a teams greatness, and doing this makes the Patriots loss even more ridiculous than it does when looking at records alone.

For an example of why point differential is a better measure of dominance than wins and losses alone, take two hypothetical teams: both play the same schedule, one goes 14-2, one goes 16-0. The 16-0 team wins every game by a score of 23-20, the 14-2 team outscores its opponents 56-0 in every win while only losing by a score of 14-13 in its two losses. Its pretty clear that the 16-0 team got lucky in winning all of its game by close margins and probably isn't as good as its record indicates, while the 14-2 team, despite its inferior record, is probably the better team, as it absolutely dominated all season outside of those two close losses. Obviously there are other variables that need to be considered (injuries, style of play, ability to close teams out), but usually teams that win games by a lot are better than teams that squeak out a lot of close wins.

Anyway this hypothetical scenario is obviously a little extreme compared to what happens in an actual season, but the general point is that point differntial provides a better measure of a team's quality than win-loss record does. This matters for Super Bowl 42 because the Patriots had the biggest point differential in the history of the NFL (589-274), making their 16-0 season that much more ridiculous, while the Giants (373-351) had the worst point differential of any playoff team from the NFC. The Giants may of had a better record than the Redskins and Bucs, but according to point differential the Giants were the second worst team in the playoffs, and one of the worst teams to ever make the Super Bowl (much less win it) in the first place. So when Brady threw that incompletion on 4th down last night, you weren't just witnessing the end of the Patriots quest for an undefeated season, you were witnessing the greatest upset in the history of the NFL.

So congrats to the Giants for their incredible win, and thanks for saving the sports world from the potential Boston three-peat where the Red Sox, Pats, and Celtics could have all been the reigning world champions come this spring. The cockiness coming out of New England was going far beyond that of New York fans after the Yankees late 90s series runs, and I'd rather put up with more crap coming out of ESPN about the New YOrk-Boston rivalry than have to listen to my Boston friends tell me about their more than slightly homoerotic man-crushes on Tom Brady any longer.


The Santana trade, the short version of the analysis: Great trade for the Mets, the Twins got shafted (especially when compared to what the A's got for Danny Haren), I'm not entirely sold on the contract but considering it isn't that much more ridiculous than what the Giants gave Zito in terms of the raw figures I have to say its not too terible. If Zito can get 18 million a year for throwing up an ERA over 4.50 in the NATIONAL LEAGUE last year you have to figure Santana is worth 22-23 million a year for being the best pitcher in baseball over the last three seasons. If Santana stays healthy the contract looks golden, if he gets into trouble (a possibility with any pitcher) than the contract looks a little overpriced but the Mets are one of the few teams in baseball (the Red Sox, Yankees, and maybe Angels and Cubs) that can afford to eat big contracts while still staying competitive. Finally, the Mets are now far and away the favorites to win the National League, despite the fact that you could make the argument that the three best teams in the National League all play in the NL East (Mets, Phillies, and Braves).

Gasol trade: Awesome, awesome trade for the Lakers, if Bynum comes back healthy you have to figure that they're now the favorites to win the West. Obviously I'm pissed about this as a Warriors fan, since it makes the W's road to the playoffs that much harder, but it should provide for me great basketball for the second half of the season. I still think the Warriors have a great shot at getting the 7 or 8 seed because I don't think the Rockets are that good and the Blazers can't keep up their hot pace, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes 47-48 wins to make the playoffs in the west and the Warriors find themselves on the outside looking in. Also, check out the first round matchups in the West if the playoffs started today:

Golden State (8) vs. Phoenix (1)
Denver (7) v. New Orleans (2)
San Antonio (6!!!!???) v. Dallas (3)
Lakers (5) v. Utah (4).

Every single one of those series looks incredible, especially when compared with the utter crapfest that is the Eastern Conference this year besides the Celtics and Pistons. After actually watching the Wizards and Cavs play recently I'm convinced that not one of the Eastern conference teams would make the playoffs in the west besides Detroit and Boston. Not one.

Your youtube magic of the day: Regis farting live on tv. The look on his face before he lets it out by itself makes it worth checking this out.