One of the underrated benefits of the Holliday deal is the flexibility the A's now have. As I see it, there are four distinct options the A's now have. From worst case to best case scenario, they are:
1) The A's don't compete for a playoff spot, don't trade Holliday at the deadline, and don't resign him. This is by far the worst case scenario, but the A's will still definitely get two compensatory draft picks for Holliday, though it's unlikely the players they ultimately draft will be as valuable as the package they gave up to get him.
2) The A's aren't in contention in July and trade Holliday in a deadline deal. It's too far out to guess what kind of return can be had for Holliday eight months from now, but I'd say the Sabathia trade (one top A- prospect (LaPorta)) and the Harden trade (several young players with varying levels of upside (Gallagher, Patterson, Murton, Donaldson)) can be used as benchmarks. So if the A's aren't in contention and are able to deal Holliday in July, the trade still may be a net positive if they can flip him for more than the Street, Gonzalez, Smith package.
3a) The A's compete for a playoff spot.
3b) The A's sign Holliday to a long-term deal.
If either one of these things comes to fruition then the A's "won" the trade. Flags fly forever, so even if the A's lose Holliday after the season and make the playoffs, then getting Holliday was a good deal. And if they sign him long-term, they'll have the impact bat the A's have been lacking since the Tejada/Giambi days of the early 2000s, meaning they'll be likely to compete in the near future.
How likely is each scenario? I'd say that as of now, choice 2 seems most likely, followed by 1 and 3a. The A's signing Holliday looks like a longshot, but it may be more likely than it appears at first glance. More on that tomorrow...
Keywords: Colorado Rockies, Matt Holliday, Oakland A's, Oakland Athletics, trades
