The A's pitching staff was the key to the team being not horrible in 2008. They were essentially tied with Boston for the fourth best staff in the league, giving up 4.29 runs a game. There's good news and bad news in these numbers and what they mean for the 2009 season. First, the good news: every returning pitcher will be 31 or under next season and at least five will be under 25. What this means is that there's likely to be some intermal improvement, without much decline. The bad news from last year's numbers is that it includes the numbers of Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin, Joe "I Homered in the World Series" Blanton, Greg Smith, and Huston Street. This means the A's will have to replace over 500 innings of dominant (Harden) to mediocre (Smith, Blanton) pitching.
What does this year's staff look like? Once again, we'll start with the good news. This time it's the bullpen. Below are the A's options for their 2009 bullpen along with their 2008 stats (ERA;BB/9;K/9).
2008 Brad Ziegler 1.06/3.32/4.53
2008 Joey Devine 0.59/2.96/9.66
2008 Santiago Casilla 3.93/3.58/7.69
2008 Andrew Brown 3.09/5.40/7.20
2008 Jerry Blevins 3.11/3.11/8.36
2007 Chris Schroder 3.18/2.98/8.54 (Schroeder spent 2008 in AAA; I'm not sure why)
I'd guess that these 6 basically have roster spots locked up for 2009. I'd also bet that this is one of the strongest bullpens in either league. Yes, the A's will have to come up with one or two more guys to round out their pen (a second lefty and/or a long reliever most likely), but these sex will get the most and highest leverage innings. I do expect some regression from Ziegler and Devine, I mean, no one's that good, and the league may figure Ziggy out, but all of these guys have track records of success in addition to their strong numbers last year.
The rotation, however, has a bunch of question marks. Here are the major league numbers for the six contenders for the rotation who pitched in the minor leagues last season.
2008 Dana Eveland 4.34/4.13/6.32
2008 Justin Duchscherer 2.54/2.16/6.03
2008 Dallas Braden 4.14/3.14/5.15
2008 Sean Gallagher 5.88/5.72/8.58
2008 Gio Gonzalez 7.68/6.62/9.00
2008 Josh Outman 4.56/2.51/6.66
Not super pretty, especially considering that Duchscherer has yet to pitch more than 141 innings in a year. Their is hope, in that Gonzalez, 22 last season, put up fairly strong numbers in AAA, striking out more than a batter per inning, though he does need to cut his walk rate (even his career minor league walk rate of nearly 4 per 9 innings won't cut it). Outman is also young, 23 in 2008, and has strong minor league numbers. The A's also have Trevor Cahill, James Simmons, Ryan Webb, or Vin Mazzaro and may consider them for the rotation, but of that group, only Mazarro has any experience at AAA and only Cahill has the numbers and stuff that might justify skipping AAA. What this does mean, though, is the A's will have several strong options once injuries hit the rotation or Braden, Gallagher, Gonzalez, or Outman falter.
They A's have a lot of flexibility if there are potential bargains in the free agent or trade markets (none that I've seen rumored so far, though). If the A's pick up a veteran via trade or free agency, they can basically start anyone I've mentioned at AAA, except Duchscherer, and have them earn their rotation spot. If they go into the 2009 season without making any more changes to their pitching staff, I'd expect a roughly average rotation and very strong bullpen - which would make for a good staff, but one that I don't think could carry a weak offensive team to the playoffs. Thus, if the A's are serious about competing in 2009, they need to make improvements either to the rotation or offense.
Next time...Addressing Furcal rumors (or actual news)
Keywords: Brad Ziegle, Dallas Braden, Dana Eveland, Gio Gonzalez, Jerry Blevins, Josh Outman, Justin Duchscherer, Oakland Athletics, r Joey Devine, Rafael Furcal, Santiago Casilla, Sean Gallagher
