Rafael Furcal is rumored to be headed to a new team soon, with the A's, Giants, and a mystery team being the supposed bidders. Furcal would be a great fit for the A's, replacing Bobby Crosby's anemic bat in the lineup and giving the A's a true leadoff hitter with both on base skills and speed.
To see how much of an improvement, I'll use the quick and dirty method I wrote about last week for estimating a lineup's run producing ability. Baseball Musings has a tool where you can plug in the OBP and SLG of a lineup and it will spit out a run/game estimate for the lineup. Replacing Crosby's career .306 OBP and .380 SLG with Furcal's career averages of .352 and .412 increases the A's estimated runs per game by about a quarter of a run per game. Add in the half a run a game improvement the Holliday trade brought and the A's are looking at an above average offense, though still one that would need to be carried into the playoffs by a strong pitching staff.
It's no wonder that the A's are thinking of adding Furcal, but at what point does it become too pricey? Since I can't guess what the A's payroll will or should be for the upcoming seasons, but assume that the A's do have money to spend (as I detailed last week, I can only try to estimate what a reasonabal price for Furcal should be, and advise that the A's don't pay too much above that price. I say that they shouldn't go too much above a reasonable price because he is the type of player who can take the A's from being marginal to serious contenders. Thus, he's more valuable to the A's than he'd be to the Giants (the Giants are going anywhere any time soon with or without Furcal).
Below I've listed a few shortstops who have signed free agent deals over the past couple years with the year they signed, their age at the time and the length of years.
2004 Orlando Cabrera $36 million 4 years 30yo
2004 Edgar Renteria $40 million 4 years 29yo
2005 Rafael Furcal $39 mlllion 3 years 28yo
2006 Nomar Garciaparra $18 million 2 years 32yo
2006 julio Lugo $36 million 4 years 30yo
2007 Michael Young $80 million 5 years 30yo*
2008 Cristian Guzman $16 million 2 years 30yo*
*signed extension with current team
The range for a shortstop between 29 and 31 appears to be between $9 million a year and $16 million a year. $8 million is an absolute floor because Crisitan Guzman sucks. Michael Young's $16 million a year is probably too high, given that ha actually signed the deal after the 2006 season in which he hit .314/.356/.459 (though it was in Texas. Coincidentally, the best comp for Furcal is probably Furcal himself after the 2005 season. Thus, the rumored 4 year/$48 million price tag seems appropriate.
More on how Furcal is likely to perform for the length of a contract when he signs (hopefully with the A's).
Keywords: Oakland Athletics, Rafael Furcal, San Francisco Giants, shortstops
