Baseball Prospectus' Marc Normandin has a great write-up on what to expect from Mark Ellis and Daric Barton for 2009. Correctly estimating what these two might do in 2009 is essential to determining what the A's need to do to increase their offensive output this season. While the A's are committed to Ellis (which is fine because of his excellent defense), they may need to consider finding ways to increase their offense at other positions if they presume Ellis won't be productive at the plate.
Barton's situation is a bit more complicated. Reports indicate that the A's are interested in several options at first base, including the Nationals' Nick Johnson and former Athletic (does simply "A" work?) Jason Giambi. If the A's predict that Barton will significantly improve next season then there's little reason to go after somewhat risky (even if cheap) veterans to play first base. But, if they think he'll put up the same putrid numbers as last year, then they must make some changes.
Normandin basically concludes that Ellis should improve on last year's numbers because of his abnormally low BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year and that Barton may improve a bit because of the same reason, but reversing the low BABIP won't make him an average offensive first baseman. I highly encourage reading the entire article (at least the parts about Ellis and Barton), though you have to be a Baseball Prospectus subscriber.
Keywords: Baseball Prospectus, Daric Barton, Mark Ellis, Oakland Athletics
