A's Face Arbitration Decisions

Monday is the deadline for all MLB teams to offer their free agents arbitration.  The A's have two players they need to make decisions about; Frank Thomas and Alan Embree.  Both are type-B free agents.  This means that if the A's offer either player arbitration, they decline and sign elsewhere, the A's will receive a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds of next year's amateur draft.  Generally, teams should offer arbitration to their free agents (if they're rated as either type A or B) unless there is a chance that the player will accept arbitration and he has no role on the team (and the team doesn't want to pay his salary).  Both Thomas and Embree might fall into this category.

Frank Thomas is probably toast.  He hit .240/.349/.374 last season, which is completely unacceptable for a DH, especially one with negative value as a baserunner.  There's no reason to think he'll be any better in 2009 at the age of 41.  If he is offered arbitration, he may very well accept.  First, he has indicated that he'd like to stay with the A's.  Secondly, if the A's offer him arbitration, his salary can be no lower than 80% of his 2008 salary of $8 million.  No team is going to offer him anywhere near that amount of money ($6.4 million).  Because there's a high likelihood that the A's will be stuck with an aging DH with no power and no roster spot for more than $6 million, they should NOT offer Thomas arbitration.

Embree's situation is less clear cut.  On the one hand, he wasn't very good last season, putting up an ERA of 4.96 while giving up way too many homers and walks.  The A's also don't really need him in the bullpen, as Jerry Blevins could step in and be the primary lefty reliever.  On the other hand, there's a decent chance that he would not accept arbitration, thus netting the A's a compensatory draft pick.  Teams are always looking at established left-handed relievers, so other teams are going to be after Embree.  The amount of money he earns is likely to be similar for him if he goes to free agency or accepts arbitration, but he can only get a one-year deal via arbitration, whereas he may be able to get a multi-year deal (or at least an option year) on the open market.  It also wouldn't be the end of the world if he accepts arbitration.  He'd likely earn roughly the same amount as he did last year ($3 million), which may be too much for a second lefty, but that figure doesn't break the bank.  The A's should offer him arbitration; they'll live with the consequences if he accepts.