Report: A's out of Running for Furcal...What's Next?

Apparently the A's offered 4-year $40 million take-it-or-leave-it deal to Rafael Furcal, which he turned down.  This means the A's are no longer pursing him as a replacement for Bobby Crosby.  I'm disappointed by this, but I can't say that this wasn't a smart move.  I may have left the deal on the table longer, but at the end of the day, if Furcal wasn't going to accept the A's top offer they weren't going to get him.  Should they have offered more?  Maybe a million or two per year, but guaranteeing the 4th year was the big deal and if that wasn't enough to satisfy him, who knows how much more it would take?  Now the A's can take their money and spend it on other upgrades, which they'll definitely need to make to compete in 2009 (which they should since that's how long they're likely to have Matt Holliday).

There are four areas the A's can improve over what they currently have on their roster and we know they have a little more than $10 million to add in payroll for 2009 (what they offered Furcal, plus what they had planned on spending on a free agent starter that they planned to sign in addition to Furcal.) These areas are shortstop, first base, center field, and the rotation.  They either have a decent option, or are committed to a player (Eric Chavez) at every other position and the bullpen (especially the bullpen).  Upgrading Travis Buck in right, wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but he's not a bad choice to pencil into the spot right now.

The bad news is that it looks like the A's are stuck with Crosby at short.  He's pretty bad offensively (.237/.296/.349 last year), and decent, but nothing special defensively (David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range had him ranked the sixth best shortstop of regular starters at the position last year).   The other options available via free agency or trade aren't very inspiring, and would not be worth their costs for any marginal improvement they might have.  Orlando Cabrera is probably the best name available, but he'd likely eat up a good chunk of the A's remaining budget, would cost a compensatory draft pick, would probably not sign for a one-year deal (I'd barely want him for this season), and wouldn't be that much of an improvement on Crosby.  The A's other option is to go with Cliff Pennington at short, but he was absolutely horrible most of his minor league career except for a good 200 ABs in Sacramento last year.  If the A's want (or need) to (and are able to) shed the $5.25 million they owe him for '09 to sign a player at another position, they should consider it, but Crosby seems like the best bet to open the season as the A's starting shortstop.

There is some good news here.  The A's are pretty flexible in their options at the other positions.  At first, they can start Daric Barton if they choose not to make an improvement there.  In center, they can platoon Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis if they don't acquire a new center fielder.  They also have more than 5 starters capable of being decent major league starters without hurting the team too bad.  They can also, however, start Barton, Sweeney, or any one of their projected rotation in AAA if they need to (and can release Davis if it comes to it).

The A's seem to be most intereted in getting a first basemen, which makes sense considering the options available.  They've been linked to trading for Nick Johnson and some have speculated that they'd bring back Jason Giambi.  Johnson is owed $5.5 million in '09 and I'd imagine Giambi would cost a similar amount.   Neither are the perfect fit, however.  Giambi really shouldn't play too much 1B, but Jack Cust will start the season as the DH.  Johnson is a severe injury risk, reaching 500ABs only once in his entire major and minor league career.  The A's would also have to trade something away to get him, but I doubt it'd take more than a C+ prospect to get it done.  Furthermore, both are left handed, and all of the A's best non-Holliday hitters are left handed (Cust, Chavez, Buck).

The A's could also consider Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell and move them to first base.  Dunn is a career .247/.381/.518 hitter and Burrell's career line is .257/.367/.485.  It's hard to say how much they'd cost.  On the one hand, they're probably the best free agent hitters after the megastars (Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira).  On the other hand, they have absolutely no defensive value and interest in both players has been lukewarm at best.  Also, both players have played the last few seasons in parks that really inflated their power numbers and would be transtioning to the better league (sounds like Holliday here).  They'd also each have to transition to 1B as Dunn has only played a handful of games there and Burrell has not done so since the minor leagues.  If either could be signed for 2-3 year deals for around $10 million a year, the A's would have to consider it.  I'd be willing to pay a little more and go more years for Dunn, who's a better hitter, younger, and a little more athletic (even though he is left handed).

There are not very many intriguing options in the free agent market for center fielders.  Ken Griffey Jr. shouldn't be an everyday center fielder, looked bad last year with the White Sox, has injury problems and is left handed.  Rocco Baldelli is interesting, but it's impossible to know how many games he'd be able to play and if he can handle center field anymore.  Jim Edmonds looked better than Griffey last year, but has his own age and left-handedness problem.  All the other free agent options wouldn't be much of an offensive upgrade on what Sweeney is likely to provide.  Their best option would be a trade.  The most obvious team that comes to mind is the Dodgers, who have too many outfielders, especially if they sign Manny Ramirez.  Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre should be available, and if the Dodgers are willing to eat a healthy portion of what the $15 million they owe him for 2009 (at least half), the A's should consider him.  Pierre is signed through 2011 and there's no reason for the A's to want him for that long (and he's left handed).  Yes Jones has been horrific in 2007 and 2008 and yes he's not the best defensive CF in baseball anymore.  But he'd be a decent option to have if the A's can get him cheaply.  If he contiues to stink, the A's could just go back to Sweeney in center.

The A's aren't going to be close to signing any of the big name pitchers available.  Sabathia, Burnett, Sheets, Oliver Perez, and probably Derek Lowe will cost more than $10 million a year to sign.  Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez are both available, though, and should be content with 1 year deals for not that much money.  Other cheap veterans who are available are Randy Wolf and Paul Byrd. The A's should definitely sign one maybe two of these tyeps if they can fit it in the budget. 

To recap, this should be the A's plan going forward:

1. Try to sign either Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell to a 2-3 year deal for about $10 million a year.  If they can't be had for this price, try to get Nick Johnson.  I'd stay away from Giambi unless all other options fail and he can be had cheaply.
2. Sign one or two veteran free agent pitchers like Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, or Paul Byrd if they can be signed for one year deals for a small amount of money.
3. See how much of Andruw Jones' salary the Dodgers are willing to eat to trade him to the A's.  If they leave the A's with around $5 million left on his tab make the trade.

This has the A's going a little over what I presume to be their budget, but they should be willing to make these moves to contend in 2009.  None of these deals would inhibit the small chances they have at resigning Holliday to a long-term contract, nor would they sacrifice the team's future in any meaningful way.  (Signing a first baseman to a two or three year deal would block Barton, but if he shows he's ready to be a big league hitter itd be a nice problem to have).

This is what the A's roster would look like if everything above went as planned.

2B Ellis

RF Buck

LF Holliday

1B Dunn/Johnson/Burrell

DH Cust

CF Jones

3B Chavez

C Suzuki

SS Crosby

This lineup leans a bit left, especially if it's Dunn or Johnson at first (and even more so if it's Sweeney in center), but it looks much more potent than last year's lineup.

Bench

C Rob Bowen

INF Jack Hannahan

OF Matt Murton

OF Davis

INF/OF Joe Dillon

Not the strongest bench in the world, but it'd have its uses.  Davis as a defensive replacement/pinch runner, Murton or Dillon to replace some of the lefties sometimes,  Ideally, the A's would have a better fallback option if and when Chavez hurts himself, but that could be addressed perhaps by a minor league FA or when Chavez does actually hurt himself.  This configuration also lets Barton and Sweeney play everyday at AAA.

Rotation

Duchscherer

Eveland

Johnson/Martinez/Byrd

Plus two of Sean Gallagher, Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez, Josh Outman

The A's already have a glut of arguably decent rotation options, but starting any in AAA or the pen wouldn't be a bad thing.

Bullpen

Ziegler

Devine

Casilla

Brown

Schroeder

Blevins

This can be altered a bit, with one of the rotation battle losers (maybe a lefty) replacing Brown or taking Hannahan's bench spot (if the A's want to go with 12 pitchers).  This would be the strength of the team and they'd have plenty of depth here as well.